3.2 Air pollution and impacts on human health | 3. Environment and human health
Key messages
The number of deaths in the EU-27 that can be attributed to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) above the levels recommended by the World Health Organization decreased by 45% between 2005 and 2022.
The EU is on track to meet the objective defined in the zero pollution action plan (reduction in the number of attributed deaths of at least 55% by 2030), but even this reduced number would still imply around 200,000 attributable deaths each year.
To achieve the 2030 objective, the EU policies on air, climate and energy need to be adequately implemented.
Key policies
Under the European Green Deal, the zero pollution action plan (ZPAP) sets a target of improving air quality: to reduce the number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to PM2.5 in the EU in 2030 by at least 55% relative to 2005.
The Eighth Environment Action Programme pursues zero pollution to achieve a toxic-free environment.
The specific European legislation involved consists of directives 2004/107/EC and 2008/50/EC, which were revised and consolidated in 2024 into the EU Ambient Air Quality Directive 2024/2881 (AAQD).
Past trends (10-15 years)
Improving trends/developments dominate
Due to the implementation of European, national and local policies and measures, concentrations of the main air pollutants in the EU decreased from 2005 to 2021.
This has resulted in a decrease in the number of deaths in the EU from 2005 to 2022 attributable to exposure to PM2.5 of 45% (from 431,000 in 2005 to 239,000 in 2022, Figure 1) and to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) of 53% (from 102,000 in 2005 to 48,000 in 2022).
Outlook (10-15 years)
Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture
Official predictions for 2040 are only available for ozone (O3). They show that even with additional reductions of methane and other precursors, the O3 standard for human health protection (revised in 2024) will still be exceeded.
Although there are no official predictions for PM2.5 in 2040, it is foreseen that, even in the best-performing scenario for 2050, around 30% of people in the EU will be exposed to annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 above the WHO guideline level value of 5µg/m3.
Finally, the health impacts of some emerging pollutants such as ultrafine particles, ammonia and black carbon have still to be defined. Their monitoring is mandatory from December 2026 at the latest, according to the revised AAQD (EU) 2024/2881.
Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050
2030 Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain
It is very likely that the 2030 ZPAP pollutant reduction target will be met and exceeded. Nevertheless, this would still imply around 200,000 deaths attributable to air pollution per year.
The current EU legal standards (defined in the 2004 and 2008 AAQ Directives) are still exceeded across Europe (Figure 2). The revised 2024 Directive set new standards for 2030. It is foreseen that in 2030, nearly 15% of the EU’s population would be exposed to levels above the revised standard for PM2.5 if no further action is taken and around 7% in the best-performing scenario.
For NO2, 28% of the population would be exposed above the WHO air quality guideline level in 2030 under the baseline scenario and 20% in the best-performing one.
2050 Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain
As previously stated, in spite of the foreseen improvements in air quality, pollutant concentrations above the WHO air quality guideline levels are expected in 2050, especially for PM2.5. Therefore, the ZPAP long-term vision for 2050 would not be reached.
Robustness
Data come from the official monitoring networks that were set up by countries to fulfil the AAQ Directives and have now been in place for more than two decades. They use common criteria and methodology to derive data. Other information comes from modelling systems (including the GAINS model used in the Fourth Clean Air Outlook). Modelling systems are intercompared regularly; for instance, in the context of FAIRMODE. Measurement and modelling system uncertainty is defined in the AAQ Directives. Health impact estimations are done using the WHO recommendations. Their uncertainties, deriving mainly from the concentration-response functions used, have been extensively documented.
Charts/maps
Figure 1. Number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), EU-27, 2005-2022
Figure 2. Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in 2023 and 2024 in Europe
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